Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FIL prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-07-20 2.243021 2.382569 2.530136 2.698459 2.885952 3.089331 3.327917
2025-07-27 2.068483 2.264668 2.482979 2.746350 3.058833 3.422177 3.883411
2025-08-03 1.924835 2.148795 2.406464 2.729353 3.129892 3.620092 4.281691
2025-08-10 1.815421 2.056886 2.341926 2.710005 3.183447 3.788405 4.650063
2025-08-17 1.720880 1.972821 2.276417 2.678208 3.210934 3.917428 4.973387
2025-08-24 1.640697 1.899509 2.216855 2.645799 3.229853 4.030738 5.282610
2025-08-31 1.585818 1.853373 2.186994 2.647356 3.291063 4.204438 5.701375
2025-09-07 1.543462 1.819936 2.170199 2.663222 3.370753 4.409691 6.198166
2025-09-14 1.483728 1.760715 2.115692 2.622689 3.364518 4.482627 6.483165
2025-09-21 1.428431 1.704568 2.062044 2.579244 3.349272 4.537862 6.742843
2025-09-28 1.375573 1.649326 2.006799 2.529803 3.320414 4.566900 6.956775
2025-10-05 1.357917 1.639879 2.012929 2.568130 3.427450 4.828370 7.662473
2025-10-12 1.341580 1.631989 2.021394 2.611263 3.547171 5.128948 8.527370
2025-10-19 1.326633 1.625224 2.030853 2.656096 3.673134 5.456982 9.545589
2025-10-26 1.293853 1.592496 2.001735 2.639989 3.696003 5.596821 10.162979
2025-11-02 1.262585 1.560681 1.972447 2.621666 3.713090 5.726798 10.793225
2025-11-09 1.229802 1.525614 1.936974 2.591543 3.707051 5.809800 11.323782
2025-11-16 1.198750 1.491998 1.902320 2.560829 3.697450 5.884061 11.854515
2025-11-23 1.178449 1.472944 1.888302 2.562305 3.745261 6.083541 12.833482
2025-11-30 1.162939 1.460160 1.882967 2.577343 3.818611 6.347781 14.139012
2025-12-07 1.134053 1.427294 1.846331 2.538920 3.789248 6.379429 14.657177
2025-12-14 1.105782 1.394614 1.808987 2.497715 3.751938 6.388915 15.104358
2025-12-21 1.077268 1.360926 1.769173 2.450795 3.700873 6.361174 15.404568